The Indian IPO market recorded its highest monthly fundraising in September, with 34 mainboard companies raising 39,309 crore, despite a significant decline in the Nifty 50 index.
Tempsens Instruments India has emerged as the strongest mainboard IPO debutant of calendar year 2026 so far, delivering a 95.55 per cent gain on its listing day, surpassing all previous top performers and contributing to August being the strongest month for listing gains this year.
The Bank Nifty is currently trading at a 43.5 per cent discount to the Nifty 50, near its widest gap since 2015, reflecting investor pessimism despite the banking sector's strong earnings growth.
Companies in the fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG) sector are losing favour with equity investors, with their price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio declining to its lowest level in six years, now trading at 38.8 times trailing earnings.
More than a third of 83 mainboard IPOs this year ended their debut sessions in the red, with losses of up to 35 per cent.
Since UK referendum outcome to exit European Union last Friday, 32 companies have hit record highs.
The joint venture of Jio Financial Services and BlackRock to foray into India's asset management space could be disruptive but not disastrous for incumbent industry players, analysts said on Thursday. As an investment strategy, analysts suggest investors stay put in shares of those AMCs that consistently improve business metrics, and where market capitalisation-to-asset under management (AUM) valuation is not stretched. However, growth expectations of incumbent players may get trimmed in the medium-to-long term, analysts said, once the Jio-BlackRock JV unveils its plans, discounting the looming challenge as significant enough to dent their profitability.
Water projects firm Vishnu Prakash R Punglia, the 20th company to launch its IPO in the current year, saw its shares closing at a 47 per cent gain over its issue price on Tuesday. Such a huge one-day pop is considered rare; however, it has become the norm this year. The average listing-day gain for these 20 IPOs in 2023 is 34 per cent, and their average gain to date stands at 46 per cent.
Stocks of small- and mid-cap companies continued to gain ground in July, notwithstanding analysts sounding caution on these two market segments given the sharp run thus far in calendar year 2023 (CY23). Sanjeev Prasad, co-head of Kotak Institutional Equities, in a note co-authored with Anindya Bhowmik and Sunita Baldawa in June-end, had cautioned against the sharp run in small- and mid-caps. "We do not see any particular reason for the excitement in small- and mid-cap stocks.
The rise in consumer price index (CPI) inflation could see the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) in an extended pause mode as regards interest rates, and in turn, keep the market rally in check, believe analysts. Signs of inflation cooling off in the US, however, is likely to provide some cushion as the expectations of a change in stance by the US Fed as regards interest rates is likely to aid sentiment. Back home, CPI inflation surged for the first time in five months to 4.81 per cent in June 2023, and was higher than the street's expectations of 4.58 per cent.
With the markets scaling new highs, as many as 43 stocks from the Nifty50 index and 27 of the 30 scrips that are part of the S&P BSE Sensex are trading above their respective 200-day moving average (DMA). The 200-DMA is seen as one of the most relevant trend indicators by investors and traders, who believe that stocks and indices trading above this level possess strength and are likely to rally in the short to medium term, while the ones trading below this level are viewed as bearish and expected to see a sell-off. Wipro, UPL, Kotak Mahindra Bank, Hindalco, Infosys, Cipla, and Adani Enterprises are the only stocks from the Nifty50 pack that are still below their respective 200-DMA, the exchange data suggests.
Wall Street-correlated stock markets are facing the risk of correction, as Christopher Wood, the global head of equity strategy at Jefferies, conveys to investors in his latest edition of GREED & fear. Rising crude oil prices, which are nearing $100 a barrel (Brent), pose a threat to the global central bank's battle against inflation and have led to a re-evaluation of its exposure to Indian stocks. "The potential for more US Federal Reserve (Fed) rate hikes, combined with the risk that monetary tightening finally bites as regards the economy, remains a risk for Wall Street-correlated world stock markets. "There is also the oil factor. This is why GREED & fear continues to believe the pain trade is down. "Areas in Asia, such as Indian midcaps, which have already done very well, are at obvious risk of some profit-taking," writes Wood.
The sharp rally in the broader markets has propelled India's market capitalisation (m-cap) to a new high. The combined m-cap of all BSE-listed firms rose to Rs 291.9 trillion in intraday trade on Thursday before settling lower at Rs 290.9 trillion. The previous record was on December 14, 2022, at Rs 291.3 trillion.
'We suggest an equity strategy of 5% to 10% exposure to cash, 5% to Gold ETF, close to 50% to Sensex/Nifty/large mid-cap stocks.'
At an aggregate level, the late ace investor's portfolio that was valued at Rs 32,445 crore as on March 31, 2023 is now worth Rs 35,979 crore.
The benchmark indices are set to end their five-month gaining streak, but the market breadth continues to hold strong So far this month, stocks gaining have outnumbered those declining, a sign that the bulls still have the upper hand, even as the pullback in the S&P BSE Sensex and the National Stock Exchange Nifty indicates otherwise. On the BSE, 2,126 stocks have advanced and 1,955 have declined in August, translating into an advance/decline ratio (ADR) of 1.1.
Public-sector enterprise stocks have seen a good run thus far in 2023-24 (FY24), with the S&P BSE PSU Index surging by over 26 per cent during the period, compared to an 11 per cent increase in the benchmark S&P BSE Sensex.
Back home, the Nifty IT index - a gauge of the performance of the IT stocks on the National Stock Exchange (NSE) that has closely mirrored the performance of NASDAQ over the past few years - has lost nearly 2 per cent in CY23.
After a sharp outperformance in the mid-and small-cap segments in the first half of calendar year 2023 (H1-CY23), analysts are now turning cautious on these two market segments and suggest investors stay selective and look for valuation comfort and earnings visibility before investing. The S&P BSE Midcap index has surged 13.7 per cent in H1-CY23, and the S&P BSE Small-cap index gained 12.7 per cent during this period, data shows. The S&P BSE Sensex, in comparison, has moved up 6.4 per cent.
The sharp rally in the markets thus far in fiscal 2023-24 (FY24) has left analysts struggling to find investment-worthy themes. The S&P BSE Sensex has surged nearly 7 per cent thus far in FY24 and hit a fresh 52-week high of 63,601.71 levels on June 22, mostly led by foreign institutional (FII) flows. "The Indian market has seen a broad rally in the past few months but headline indices have seen more modest performance. "We are not very clear about the reasons for the rally and the divergent performance and struggle to find ideas in the consumption, investment and outsourcing sectors after the sharp run-up in several of our favored sectors and stocks in the past two months," wrote Sanjeev Prasad, co-head, Kotak Institutional Equities, in a recent co-authored note with Anindya Bhowmik and Sunita Baldawa.
'A cutback in hiring and compensation growth by IT companies will have a significant impact on consumer demand, especially in the urban sector of the economy.'
The mid-and small-cap segments at the bourses have outperformed their larger peers thus far in fiscal 2023-24 (FY24). While the S&P BSE Small-cap index has surged around 5.7 per cent in FY24, the S&P BSE Midcap index has gained 4 per cent during this period. In comparison, the S&P BSE Sensex has moved up around 2.2 per cent.
The gap between the highs and the lows in April for the benchmark S&P BSE Sensex was just 4.1 per cent - the narrowest since July 2021 and nearly half its three-year average. The absence of major positive triggers, sectoral rotation, and cautiousness due to earnings and economic uncertainty have kept a tight leash on the markets, observe experts. Remarkably enough, during the 17 trading sessions in April, the Sensex didn't even log an advance or a decline of more than 1 per cent.
Trading volumes for the equities cash segment remained soft, even as the benchmark indices rallied nearly 9 per cent in July. Meanwhile, volumes in the futures and options (F&O) market dipped marginally, but continued to hover at record levels. In July, the average daily turnover (ADTV) for the cash segment was Rs 46,602 crore, up 4.5 per cent month-on-month (MoM), but 26 per cent lower than the preceding 12-month average.
A sharp rally in domestic stocks from June lows has once again rendered Indian markets expensive to their emerging-market (EM) peers. The 12-month forward price-to-earnings (P/E) multiple for the Nifty50 Index is around 20.6x - 82 per cent higher than 11.3 per cent for the MSCI EM Index. India's valuation premium has hit a five-month high. This is on the back of sharp outperformance to EM and global peers from June lows and also due to earnings downgrades, following the April-June quarter of 2022-23 earnings.
Manufacturing companies have been outperformers on the bourses in the current year, leading to a rise in their weighting in the benchmark index. Companies in sectors such as FMCG, automobile, pharmaceuticals, metals, cement, and agrochemicals now account for 25.43 per cent of the Nifty 50 index, up 88 basis points from 24.55 per cent at the end of December last year and a record low of 23.1 per cent at the end of CY20. The manufacturing sector is now dominated by FMCG majors such as Hindustan Unilever, ITC, Asian Paints, Nestle, and Britannia, accounting for 45 per cent of the combined market cap of all manufacturing companies in the index.
The biggest jump in earnings and decline in P/E multiples has occurred with top companies in metals and mining, corporate banking, and the oil and gas sectors.
Corporate India continues to be generous in rewarding its shareholders with big dividend payouts. This is especially true for shareholders of companies such as Tata Consultancy Services (TCS), Hindustan Zinc (HZL), and Coal India (CIL) which are seen as cash cows of large business groups and the government. Boosted by a big payout by these three companies, the combined equity dividend payout by listed companies was up 38 per cent year-on-year (YoY) to a record high of Rs 2.27 trillion in 2022-23 (FY23), compared with Rs 1.65 trillion in 2021-22 (FY22).
Hindustan Zinc (HZL), a subsidiary of Vedanta, announced an interim dividend of Rs 21 per share last week, resulting in an outflow of Rs 8,863 crore. The announcement has turned the spotlight on India Inc's dividend-paying policy - more so for reasons driving the generosity of firms. An analysis of BSE 500 companies by Business Standard Research Bureau shows that some of the top 20 dividend-paying companies in 2021-22 (FY22) include Vedanta, Tata Consultancy Services, HZL, Oil and Natural Gas Corporation (ONGC), Indian Oil Corporation (IndianOil), Hindustan Unilever (HUL), Reliance Industries (RIL), and Bajaj Auto, among others.
Shares of Motilal Oswal Financial Services, Edelweiss Financial Services and IIFL Holdings have all doubled in the past one year against the Sensex's 23 per cent gain.
It has Rs 20,500 crore of standard stressed pool outstanding as of June 2018. Thus, the entire stressed book (net NPAs and standard stressed pool) is nearly two times its net worth.
Consumer stocks remain the biggest laggard on the bourses. The Nify50 weighting of FMCG stocks declined to a decade low of 9.9 per cent at the end of March this year, down 150 basis points from 11.4 per cent a year ago. At their peak in March 2013, major FMCG stocks, such as Hindustan Unilever, ITC, and Asian Paints, together accounted for 15 per cent of the Nifty50. But now together with automobile stocks, the consumer goods sector accounts for only 14.7 per cent of the index, down 200 basis points in the past 12 months and 37 per cent from the record high weighting of 23.4 per cent at the end of March 2014.
While a little more than 140 penny stocks have doubled in value, 555 have given negative returns in the past year. Of these, 84 shed more than half their value.
Time opportune, with market buoyancy and entry of new entities
The rally in mid- and small-cap stocks has spilled over into the IT sector as well. Second and third-tier IT stocks, which historically traded at a discount to the big five IT companies, are now trading at nearly 25 per cent premium to their large-cap peers. The smaller IT companies have a price-to-earnings (P/E) multiple of nearly 38 times against the big five's current P/E multiple of around 31x.
Index heavyweights continue to be top losers with ICICI bank.
41 companies take back shares worth Rs 27,783 crore in FY17
Analysts expect firms to shift focus to online platforms to boost sales in these Covid-19-impacted times.
There is positive correlation between crude oil prices and Indian equities and investors can expect more upside after the recent rally in Brent crude price.
With markets expected to remain volatile, promoters and lenders exposed to the industrials and materials space can face brunt of the price erosion of the pledged shares.
